Washington, D.C. United States – However, cotton yarn imports by China have supplanted much of the domestic spinning declines; in 2015/16, China could import about 10 million bale-equivalents of raw fiber in the form of cotton yarn, triple the level imported 5 years ago.Cotton mill use in India is forecast to remain stable in 2015/16—at 24.5 million bales—after three consecutive annual increases. India’s expansion has been supported by growth in cotton yarn exports to China, where India is the leading supplier. Cotton mill use in Pakistan is forecast at 9.6 million bales in 2015/16, 1 million bales below last season as the significantly reduced crop there has limited supplies. Cotton consumption in Turkey is expected to remain flat at 6.4 million bales, while mill use in Bangladesh and Vietnam are forecast to continue their expansion that began several years ago. In Bangladesh, cotton mill use is projected near 5.9 million bales in 2015/16, more than 2 million bales above 2011/12. For Vietnam, the growth has been even more impressive as expansion of the textile industry continues. In 2015/16, cotton mill use in Vietnam is forecast at 5.1 million bales, nearly 3.5 million bales higher than 4 years ago.
With global cotton production declining significantly in 2015/16 and mill use only slightly lower, world stocks are forecast to fall for the first time in six seasons. Based on the March world cotton supply and demand estimates, 2015/16 global ending stocks are forecast at 103.3 million bales, 8 percent (nearly 9 million bales) below a year ago but similar to stocks at the end of 2013/14. Despite the stock decrease, global cotton supplies at the end of 2015/16 will approximate nearly a year’s worth of mill use. As a result, world cotton prices are expected to continue their trend lower to levels not experienced since 2008/09.